Today's Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll
October 15th, 2004. Bush Opens Four-Point Lead (48%-44%)
Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll
Pollster John Zogby: "While Bush-- now at 48%-- had another good night continuing his upward trend, Kerry appears stuck at 44%. [...] The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
However, there is a possible bright spot: Kerry appears to lead Bush significantly among registered voters 50%-45%. Most of the polls we see, however, focus on "likely voters" - people who regularly vote. However, a lot of people who normally sit out elections may be coming to the polls. If they do, it could work significantly in Kerry's favor. The common wisdom has been appeal to the undecided voters. Looking at this, it appears that turnout (of the base) will be decisive.
From Salon.com's War Room: Kerry leads among registered voters.
A new poll by Scripps Research Center at Ohio University finds that, over the last two weeks, Kerry has led Bush 50-45 among registered voters, but trailed Bush 48-47 among "likely voters" who regularly voted in the past. Which is a more accurate predictor of how people will vote on election day? Well, Scripps comes up with solid evidence that it's a bad idea to exclude people who only rarely vote.
[...]
About 90 percent of regular voters say they are either 'very closely' or 'somewhat closely' watching the race. But about 75 percent -- an extraordinarily high number -- of registered voters who 'rarely' vote in major elections say they also are watching the presidential race closely."
[...]
About 90 percent of regular voters say they are either 'very closely' or 'somewhat closely' watching the race. But about 75 percent -- an extraordinarily high number -- of registered voters who 'rarely' vote in major elections say they also are watching the presidential race closely."
posted by Chinchilla Verde | 10:11 AM
1 Comments:
"Get out the vote" drives are going to be crucial. The "wait and see" voters (people who tell themselves that they don't need to bother voting if their state appears to be trending too much one way or another) could be the death of Kerry.
If you can, vote by absentee ballots. Otherwise, vote first thing in the morning just to be safe. Sometimes precincts run out of ballots... especially in poorer neighbhorhoods where Republicans are calling the shots:
City, county spar over ballot supplyPosted: Oct. 12, 2004
Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, citing vote-fraud concerns, is publicly balking at a City of Milwaukee request for almost 260,000 additional ballots in anticipation of high turnout for the Nov. 2 presidential election.
[...]
Barrett said that the 679,000 ballots the county had agreed to print were less than the amount prepared for the presidential election in 2000 as well as for the the gubernatorial race in 2002. He and the city's top election official said that the city requested 938,000 ballots from the county, which, by law, pays for and prints ballots.
The flare-up between Barrett and Walker pits two of the most prominent politicians in the Milwaukee area who - while holding non-partisan offices - are on opposite sides of the presidential race. Walker, a Republican, is a state co-chair of President Bush's campaign, while Barrett, a Democrat, is state co-chair of the John Kerry campaign.
More specifically, it involves central-city voters, most of them minorities, thousands of whom have been registered in recent months by voter-registration groups. Those efforts, though non-partisan, are widely viewed as helping the Democrats; Bush drew just 2% in 2000 in Milwaukee's predominantly African-American voting wards.
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